Fine-tuning a pretrained language model on a curated dataset can produce spurious correlations between the fine-tuning task and unintended latent factors -- such as misaligned personas or political slant -- that the curation procedure has entangled with the task. The model can latch onto these spurious correlations, leading to bias and reduced out-of-distribution generalisation. We prove that under reasonable assumptions on task complexity and the spurious correlation, such latent factors can be identified, without supervision, from the weights of a naive LoRA fine-tune. Existing approaches to removing bias, such as activation steering, remove identified factors from residual-stream activations, either at inference or during training. We argue, however, that the goal should be to remove the spurious correlation, not the latent factor itself, as the pretrained model may rely on it for genuine task signal. To enable this, we propose GRASP, GRadient projection of Associated Spurious Patterns, which prevents the model from acquiring new reliance on the identified latent factor while preserving any pretrained content along it. We validate on three fine-tuning tasks. The first two involve emergent misalignment, where fine-tuning on a narrow task -- in our case, writing insecure code and giving bad medical advice -- leads to misaligned responses on unrelated topics. Here our method completely removes misalignment in the insecure code case and reduces them by ~5x in the bad medical advice case, beating all baselines in the trade-off between misalignment-reduction and task-preservation. The last is a novel political-bias experiment, where fine-tuning on right-skewed Reddit financial-advice data causes political-lean drift on unrelated topics. Here our method reduces drift by more than half, while improving financial task performance, beating all baselines.

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invariant Risk Minimization as a family of Causal Statistical Estimators, each identifying interventional distributions under different assumptions. Third, three AI failure modes (hallucination in large language models, reward hacking in reinforcement learning from human feedback, and degradation under distribution shift) are manifestations of causal blindness, each admitting a principled statistical remedy. Trustworthy AI is, at its core, a problem of causal statistics. The statistical community is not merely equipped to solve it -- it is the only community with the foundational tools to do so rigorously.

Data-driven models learned often struggle to generalize due to widespread subpopulation shifts, especially the presence of both spurious correlations and group imbalance (SC-GI). To learn models more powerful for defending against SC-GI, we propose a Correlation-Oriented Disentanglement and Augmentation (CODA) modeling scheme, which includes two unique developments: (1) correlation-oriented disentanglement and (2) strategic sample augmentation with reweighted consistency (RWC) loss. In (1), a bi-branch encoding process is developed to enable the disentangling of variant and invariant correlations by coordinating with a decoy classifier and the decoder reconstruction. In (2), a strategic sample augmentation based on disentangled latent features with RWC loss is designed to reinforce the training of a more generalizable model. The effectiveness of CODA is verified by benchmarking against a set of SOTA models in terms of worst-group accuracy and maximum group accuracy gap based on two famous datasets, ColoredMNIST and CelebA.

Incorporating causality into reinforcement learning methods increases the interpretability of artificial636 intelligence, which helps humans understand the underlying mechanism of algorithms and check637 the source of failures. However, the learned causal transition model may contain human-readable638 private information about the environment, which could raise privacy issues. To mitigate this potential639 negative societal impact, the causal transition model needs to be encrypted and only accessible to640 algorithms and trustworthy users.641 In this section, besides the most related formulation, robust RL introduced in Sec 3.3, we also643 introduce some other related RL problem formulations partially shown in Figure 3. Then, we limit644 our discussion to mainly two lines of work that are related to ours: (1) promoting robustness in RL;645 (2) concerning the spurious correlation issues in RL.646 B.1 Related RL formulations647 Robustness to noisy state: POMDPs and SA-MDPs.

Robustness has been extensively studied in reinforcement learning (RL) to handle various forms of uncertainty such as random perturbations, rare events, and malicious attacks. In this work, we consider one critical type of robustness against spurious correlation, where different portions of the state do not have correlations induced by unobserved confounders. These spurious correlations are ubiquitous in real-world tasks, for instance, a self-driving car usually observes heavy traffic in the daytime and light traffic at night due to unobservable human activity. A model that learns such useless or even harmful correlation could catastrophically fail when the confounder in the test case deviates from the training one. Although motivated, enabling robustness against spurious correlation poses significant challenges since the uncertainty set, shaped by the unobserved confounder and causal structure, is difficult to characterize and identify. Existing robust algorithms that assume simple and unstructured uncertainty sets are therefore inadequate to address this challenge. To solve this issue, we propose Robust State-Confounded Markov Decision Processes (RSC-MDPs) and theoretically demonstrate its superiority in avoiding learning spurious correlations compared with other robust RL counterparts. We also design an empirical algorithm to learn the robust optimal policy for RSC-MDPs, which outperforms all baselines in eight realistic self-driving and manipulation tasks. Please refer to the website for more details.

By inferring latent groups in the training data, recent works introduce invariant learning to the case where environment annotations are unavailable. Typically, learning group invariance under a majority/minority split is empirically shown to be effective in improving out-of-distribution generalization on many datasets. However, theoretical guarantee for these methods on learning invariant mechanisms is lacking. In this paper, we reveal the insufficiency of existing group invariant learning methods in preventing classifiers from depending on spurious correlations in the training set. Specifically, we propose two criteria on judging such sufficiency. Theoretically and empirically, we show that existing methods can violate both criteria and thus fail in generalizing to spurious correlation shifts. Motivated by this, we design a new group invariant learning method, which constructs groups with statistical independence tests, and reweights samples by group label proportion to meet the criteria. Experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate that the new method significantly outperforms existing group invariant learning methods in generalizing to spurious correlation shifts1.

Similarly to [6], we consider that all environments have the same underlying Structural Causal Model (SCM) and that the different environments correspond to different interventions on the SCM. We provide here the formal definition for SCMs and interventions. We say that Xi causes Xj if Xi 2Pa(Xj). Definition A.2. (Intervention) [6]: Consider a SCMC =( S,N). An intervention e on C consists of replacing one or several of its structural equations to obtain an intervened SCMCe =( Se,N e) with structural equations: Sej: Xej fj(Pa(Xej),N ej), for j =1,...m (11) The variable Xe is intervened on if Si 6= Sei or Ni 6= Nei .

Machine learning models can frequently produce systematic errors on critical subsets (or slices) of data that share common attributes. Discovering and explaining such model bugs is crucial for reliable model deployment. However, existing bug discovery and interpretation methods usually involve heavy human intervention and annotation, which can be cumbersome and have low bug coverage. In this paper, we propose HiBug, an automated framework for interpretable model debugging. Our approach utilizes large pre-trained models, such as chatGPT, to suggest human-understandable attributes that are related to the targeted computer vision tasks. By leveraging pre-trained vision-language models, we can efficiently identify common visual attributes of underperforming data slices using humanunderstandable terms. This enables us to uncover rare cases in the training data, identify spurious correlations in the model, and use the interpretable debug results to select or generate new training data for model improvement. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the HiBug framework. Code is available at: https://github.com/cure-lab/HiBug.